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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast

FinalMIL leads series 2-1

Away

Brewers

97-65

3–4

at

Home

Cubs

92-70

MIL 50%CHC 50%

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Wrigley Field · TBS, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.

CHC75%50%75%MILStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jose QuintanaPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs
  • Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Bauers homered to left center (364 feet).3–4
  • 4Bauers singled to center, Frelick scored, Durbin to third.2–4
  • 1Happ scored on Mears wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong stole second.1–4
  • 1Happ scored on Mears wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong stole second.1–4
  • 1Happ scored on Mears wild pitch, Crow-Armstrong stole second.1–4
  • 1Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Hoerner scored and Tucker scored, Happ to third.1–3
  • 1Busch homered to right center (377 feet).1–1
  • 1Frelick hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cubs 50%

Toss-upHit
MIL 50%CHC 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
CHC 50%
ML MIL -110 / CHC -110
Pre-line forecast
CHC 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHC 48%
Ratings vs. market
−1.9 pts
CHC: Elo 48.1%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
CHC -100
MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 3.3 – 3.3 CHC
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILCHCWhy
Team rating15671535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+13+13MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +14 EloMIL 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 52.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 52.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCHC 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatCHC
3rd of 305.0Runs scored4.95th of 30
3rd of 303.9Runs allowed4.07th of 30
1st of 30+1.1Margin+0.93rd of 30
17th of 304–6Last 104–617th of 30
1st of 3045–36Road vs home50–296th of 30
23rd of 301497Opponent Elo149920th of 30
1st of 301567Elo rating15356th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersCubs
1500155016001650AprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILCHC
Run line91–7379–88
Last 105–56–4
Favorite47–5352–60
Underdog44–2027–28
Overs–unders82–8283–84
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 23–18 CHC in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 41.