Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Busch homered to center (401 feet).0–6
- 7Tucker homered to center (414 feet).0–5
- 6Shaw singled to center, Kelly scored, Swanson to second.0–4
- 1Happ homered to right (410 feet), Hoerner scored and Tucker scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–36 | Road vs home | 50–296th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–73 | 79–89 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 47–53 | 52–61 |
| Underdog | 45–20 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders | 83–82 | 84–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–19 CHC in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 42.
- Oct 8MIL 3 @ CHC 4PlayoffsPicked CHC 50%Hit
- Oct 6CHC 3 @ MIL 7PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Hit
- Oct 4CHC 3 @ MIL 9PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Aug 21MIL 4 @ CHC 1Picked CHC 56%Miss
- Aug 20MIL 3 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Aug 19MIL 1 @ CHC 4Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Aug 19MIL 4 @ CHC 6Picked CHC 58%Hit
- Aug 18MIL 7 @ CHC 0Picked CHC 52%Miss