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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalLAD lead series 2-1

Away

Phillies

96-66

8–2

at

Home

Dodgers

93-69

PHI 38%LAD 62%

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Dodger Stadium · TBS, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%PHIStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
  • Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers
  • Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Edman singled to left, E. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.8–2
  • 8Schwarber homered to right (368 feet), Turner scored.8–1
  • 8Turner singled to right, Kepler scored and Castellanos scored.6–1
  • 8Realmuto homered to left center (407 feet).4–1
  • 4Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Bohm scored.3–1
  • 4Bohm singled to center, Harper scored on throwing error by center fielder Pages, Bohm to third.2–1
  • 4Schwarber homered to right (455 feet).1–1
  • 3Edman homered to left center (393 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 62%

SolidMiss
PHI 38%LAD 62%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
LAD 62%
ML PHI +155 / LAD -185
Pre-line forecast
LAD 62%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 57%
Ratings vs. market
−5.7 pts
LAD: Elo 56.7%, market 62.3%
Fair odds
LAD -166
PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHILADWhy
Team rating15491567Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−9+3PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +46 EloLAD 56.7%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 63.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 62.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 62.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatLAD
8th of 304.8Runs scored5.12nd of 30
6th of 304.0Runs allowed4.212th of 30
5th of 30+0.8Margin+0.94th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 108–22nd of 30
5th of 3041–40Road vs home52–293rd of 30
27th of 301495Opponent Elo149330th of 30
3rd of 301549Elo rating15671st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesDodgers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHILAD
Run line84–8074–92
Last 103–78–2
Favorite60–6956–83
Underdog24–1118–9
Overs–unders77–8785–81
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 11–9 LAD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.