Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7T. Hernández homered to right center (394 feet), Pages scored and Smith scored.5–3
- 6E. Hernández doubled to left, Edman scored and Freeman scored.2–3
- 2Bader hit sacrifice fly to left, Realmuto scored.0–3
- 2Realmuto tripled to center, Bohm scored and Marsh scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML LAD +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.7 – 3.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +6 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 55–261st of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301564 | Elo rating | 15524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–92 | 84–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 56–83 | 60–67 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 84–80 | 76–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–11 PHI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.