Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Kim scored on error, Pages safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Kerkering, E. Hernández to second, Muncy to third.1–2
- 7Betts walked, Dean scored, Ohtani to second, E. Hernández to third.1–1
- 7Castellanos doubled to left, Kepler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML PHI +115 / LAD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +24 Elo | LAD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301553 | Elo rating | 15632nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 74–93 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 60–69 | 56–84 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 86–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–9 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.
- Oct 8PHI 8 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 62%Miss
- Oct 6LAD 4 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 50%Miss
- Oct 4LAD 5 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Miss
- Sep 17PHI 0 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Sep 16PHI 9 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 54%Miss
- Sep 15PHI 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 52%Miss
- Apr 6LAD 7 @ PHI 8Picked LAD 53%Miss
- Apr 5LAD 3 @ PHI 1Picked PHI 50%Miss