Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting2-3
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman scored on pickoff error by pitcher Uribe.1–3
- 6Freeman scored on pickoff error by pitcher Uribe.1–3
- 6Edman singled to center, Smith scored, Freeman to third.1–2
- 2Bauers singled to center, Durbin scored.1–1
- 1Betts doubled to right, Ohtani scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML MIL +140 / LAD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 4.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | MIL: Aaron Ashby: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–36 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301560 | Elo rating | 15681st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 94–75 | 75–95 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 48–54 | 57–86 |
| Underdog | 46–21 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 83–86 | 86–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–11 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.
- Oct 14LAD 5 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 13LAD 2 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 59%Hit
- Jul 20MIL 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Miss
- Jul 19MIL 8 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 53%Miss
- Jul 18MIL 2 @ LAD 0Picked LAD 63%Miss
- Jul 9LAD 2 @ MIL 3Picked LAD 58%Miss
- Jul 8LAD 1 @ MIL 3Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Jul 7LAD 1 @ MIL 9Picked LAD 57%Miss