Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Edman singled to right, Smith scored, Muncy to third.5–1
- 7Ohtani singled to right, E. Hernández scored.4–1
- 6Muncy homered to center (412 feet).3–1
- 2Pages doubled to right, E. Hernández scored.2–1
- 2T. Hernández homered to left (377 feet).1–1
- 1Chourio homered to right center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / MIL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 46.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 15632nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–95 | 94–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 56–86 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 46–20 |
| Overs–unders | 86–83 | 83–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–10 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.