Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yelich homered to right (421 feet), Turang scored and Rengifo scored.7–9
- 8Rengifo singled to center, Lockridge scored and Perkins scored, Turang to third.7–6
- 8Turang singled to left, Ortiz scored, Perkins to second, Lockridge to third.7–4
- 6Lockridge singled to right, Frelick scored.7–3
- 3Pereira homered to center (403 feet).7–2
- 2Montgomery singled to center, Vargas scored.6–2
- 2Murakami homered to right center (375 feet).5–2
- 1Sánchez homered to left (387 feet), Contreras scored.4–2
- 1Montgomery homered to center (405 feet), Meidroth scored, Murakami scored and Vargas scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML CHW +139 / MIL -168
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -150
- CHW +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | CHW: Anthony Kay (no track record yet) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +110 Elo | MIL 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–54 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301446 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHW |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 95–67 | 94–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 93–60 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 83–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–10 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.