Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Montgomery homered to right center (395 feet), Teel scored.10–9
- 8García Jr. homered to right (394 feet).8–9
- 8Lile homered to right center (397 feet), Abrams scored and Bell scored.8–8
- 6García Jr. homered to right (354 feet), Lile scored.8–5
- 6Abrams homered to right (347 feet).8–3
- 5García Jr. homered to center (409 feet).8–2
- 5Robertson sacrificed into double play, right to first to third, Quero scored, Sosa thrown out at third.8–1
- 5Sosa doubled to left, Vargas scored, Quero to third.7–1
- 4Teel singled to right, Fletcher scored.6–1
- 4Sosa homered to left center (386 feet).5–1
- 1Bell homered to right (391 feet).4–1
- 1Sosa singled to left, Baldwin scored.4–0
- 1Baldwin doubled to right, Teel scored and Vargas scored.3–0
- 1Vargas singled to right, Meidroth scored, Teel to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML CHW +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +36 Elo | WSH 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–53 | Road vs home | 31–4729th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301430 | Elo rating | 143428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–67 | 77–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 4–21 |
| Underdog | 90–60 | 73–61 |
| Overs–unders | 77–82 | 84–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.