Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nasim NunezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shinnosuke OgasawaraPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Allen singled to center, Profar scored, Acuña Jr. to second.5–11
- 6Profar singled to right, Harris II scored.5–10
- 6Alvarez Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Ozuna scored.5–9
- 5Chaparro singled to left, Hassell III scored, House scored and Nuñez scored, Chaparro to second.5–8
- 4Harris II grounded into fielder's choice to second, Baldwin scored, Ozuna out at second.2–8
- 4Crews homered to left (389 feet).2–7
- 3Acuña Jr. walked, Ozuna scored, Profar to second, Harris II to third.1–7
- 3Harris II singled to center, Baldwin scored, Ozuna to third.1–6
- 3Ozuna singled to left, Kim scored, Baldwin to second.1–5
- 3Baldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored, Kim to third.1–4
- 2Harris II doubled to right, Kim scored.1–2
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left center (402 feet).1–1
- 1Nuñez homered to right (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML WSH +220 / ATL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.1%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -235
- WSH +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +32 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +124 Elo | ATL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–45 | Road vs home | 36–3923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 28th of 301435 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–81 | 77–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–21 | 40–57 |
| Underdog | 71–60 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 83–73 | 76–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 16–20 ATL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 36.