Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to right center (397 feet), Profar scored.10–1
- 8Kim homered to left (367 feet), Albies scored.8–1
- 4Torkelson homered to left center (392 feet).6–1
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to right center (386 feet), Olson scored.6–0
- 2Olson doubled to right, Alvarez Jr. scored.4–0
- 1Albies singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored, Baldwin to second.3–0
- 1Baldwin walked, Profar scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML ATL +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- DET: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +15 Elo | DET 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–44 | Road vs home | 46–3210th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–79 | 71–82 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 49–61 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 74–79 | 84–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–1 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.