Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Nacho Alvarez Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar singled to right, Kim scored, Profar to second, Alvarez Jr. to third.6–5
- 9Alvarez Jr. singled to right, Albies scored, Kim to second.5–5
- 8Alvarez Jr. homered to left center (388 feet).4–5
- 7Torkelson homered to left (436 feet), Jones scored.3–5
- 6McKinstry homered to left center (374 feet).3–3
- 3Pérez hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.3–2
- 3Baldwin homered to right center (416 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.3–1
- 3Alvarez Jr. homered to left (347 feet).1–1
- 1Torkelson singled to right, Torres scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML ATL -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- DET: Elo 58.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +24 | ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +62 Elo | DET 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 21st of 3034–44 | Road vs home | 46–3312th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–79 | 71–83 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 49–62 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 75–79 | 85–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–1 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.