Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.6–2
- 9Torres doubled to left, Jones scored.6–1
- 9Harris II doubled to center, Albies scored.6–0
- 9Kim hit sacrifice fly to left, Baldwin scored, Albies to third.5–0
- 9Albies doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to third.4–0
- 5Baldwin tripled to left, Olson scored.3–0
- 4Kim homered to left center (383 feet).2–0
- 3Acuña Jr. singled to right, Bruján scored, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML ATL +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −4 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–44 | Road vs home | 46–3412th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–79 | 71–84 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 49–63 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 76–79 | 86–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–1 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.