Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9White homered to center (436 feet).4–3
- 8Ozuna homered to center (404 feet).4–2
- 8Wood homered to center (436 feet).4–1
- 6Baldwin homered to right center (419 feet).3–1
- 6Wood homered to center (445 feet).3–0
- 4Bell homered to center (429 feet).2–0
- 1Lile singled to center, Abrams scored, Bell to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML WSH +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +8 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +106 Elo | ATL 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 24th of 3033–47 | Road vs home | 38–3921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301432 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–82 | 78–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 4–21 | 41–58 |
| Underdog | 72–61 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 84–74 | 77–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 16–22 ATL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.