Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood homered to right center (416 feet).2–3
- 7Harris II homered to center (424 feet).1–3
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to right center (433 feet).1–2
- 5Harris II homered to right center (444 feet).1–1
- 3Abrams singled to right, Nuñez scored, Wood to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML WSH +160 / ATL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +97 Elo | ATL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–46 | Road vs home | 37–3923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 28th of 301433 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–82 | 78–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 4–21 | 41–57 |
| Underdog | 71–61 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 84–73 | 77–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 16–21 ATL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 37.