Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ortiz singled to center, Mitchell scored.1–6
- 6Lockridge singled to center, Hamilton scored.1–5
- 4Murakami homered to center (409 feet).1–4
- 2Yelich reached on infield single to pitcher, Turang scored on throwing error by pitcher Burke, Contreras safe at third on error.0–4
- 1Mitchell singled to center, Yelich scored and Bauers scored.0–3
- 1Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML CHW +163 / MIL -199
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.2%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -175
- CHW +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +117 Elo | MIL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–54 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301447 | Elo rating | 15452nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHW |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 95–67 | 94–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 93–60 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 83–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–9 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.