Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Murakami homered to right (384 feet).2–14
- 7Bauers homered to right (361 feet), Yelich scored and Lockridge scored.1–14
- 6Mitchell walked, Lockridge scored, Hamilton to second, Frelick to third.1–11
- 6Hamilton walked, Yelich scored, Frelick to second, Lockridge to third.1–10
- 6Vaughn singled to center, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.1–9
- 5Frelick homered to right (407 feet), Bauers scored.1–8
- 4Yelich singled to center, Ortiz scored, Contreras thrown out at third.1–6
- 4Ortiz singled to right, Hamilton scored.1–5
- 2Contreras doubled to left, Hamilton scored, Ortiz scored and Mitchell scored.1–4
- 2Ortiz singled to right, Frelick scored, Mitchell to second, Hamilton to third.1–1
- 1Meidroth homered to left center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML CHW +163 / MIL -199
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.8%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -175
- CHW +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −20 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +84 Elo | MIL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–54 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301450 | Elo rating | 15422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHW |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 95–67 | 94–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 93–60 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 83–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–8 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.