Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hill reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Sosa to third.5–6
- 8Wood singled to left, García Jr. scored, Young to third.4–6
- 7Wood homered to center (419 feet).4–5
- 7Young homered to left (380 feet), Nuñez scored.4–4
- 4Lile homered to right center (387 feet), Bell scored.4–2
- 4Baldwin homered to right (391 feet), Vargas scored.4–0
- 4Montgomery homered to right (386 feet), Teel scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML CHW -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −10 | CHW: Tyler Gilbert: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +5 Elo | WSH 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–53 | Road vs home | 31–4829th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 29th of 301431 | Elo rating | 143328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 93–67 | 77–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 4–22 |
| Underdog | 91–60 | 73–61 |
| Overs–unders | 78–82 | 85–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.