Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting1-3
- Brad LordPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8M. Taylor grounded out to shortstop, Sosa scored.8–0
- 5Baldwin doubled to center, Teel scored and Montgomery scored, Vargas to third.7–0
- 4Fletcher homered to right (380 feet), Sosa scored.5–0
- 4Baldwin homered to right center (423 feet).3–0
- 1Vargas homered to left center (404 feet), Montgomery scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML CHW +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +21 Elo | WSH 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 29th of 3026–54 | Road vs home | 32–4829th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 29th of 301430 | Elo rating | 143428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 94–67 | 77–84 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 4–23 |
| Underdog | 92–60 | 73–61 |
| Overs–unders | 79–82 | 86–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–4 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.