Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell homered to right (393 feet).5–1
- 9Clemens homered to left (391 feet).4–1
- 9Wallner homered to left center (405 feet).3–1
- 8Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored.2–1
- 8Buxton hit sacrifice fly to center, Bell scored, Lewis to third.2–0
- 2Kody Clemens steals (2) 3rd base. Clemens scored on throwing error by catcher Perez.1–0
- 2Clemens scored on pickoff error by catcher Perez.1–0
- 2Clemens scored on pickoff error by catcher Perez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML MIN +129 / KC -156
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- KC: Elo 58.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +59 Elo | KC 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 171–4 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 17 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 22–19 KC in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 41.