Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin homered to right (396 feet).4–1
- 8Jensen hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- 5Pasquantino singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.3–0
- 4Jensen homered to right center (371 feet).2–0
- 3Witt Jr. singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML KC +126 / ATL -153
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.0%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -137
- KC +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −4 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 39–4222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  KC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–82 | 79–83 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–44 | 42–61 |
| Underdog | 52–38 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 72–90 | 78–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–8 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.