Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Horwitz homered to right center (414 feet), N. Gonzales scored and McCutchen scored.9–3
- 9N. Gonzales reached on infield single to second, Triolo scored on throwing error by second baseman Allen.6–3
- 7Baldwin doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.5–3
- 7Horwitz homered to right center (403 feet).5–2
- 6Harris II homered to right center (407 feet).4–2
- 2N. Gonzales singled to center, Davis scored.4–1
- 2Davis singled to center, Yorke scored.3–1
- 2Pham homered to left (433 feet), Horwitz scored.2–1
- 1Olson homered to right (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML PIT +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −19 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3025–53 | Road vs home | 38–4022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–74 | 78–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 41–59 |
| Underdog | 66–43 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 65–94 | 77–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–8 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.