Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Olson scored on throwing error by shortstop Triolo, Acuña Jr. out at second.1–4
- 8Olson singled to right, Allen scored.1–3
- 6Bart singled to right, Reynolds scored.1–2
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to center (451 feet), Olson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML PIT +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −11 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–53 | Road vs home | 38–4224th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–74 | 78–83 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 41–61 |
| Underdog | 68–43 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 66–95 | 78–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–8 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.