Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suwinski singled to left, N. Gonzales scored, Bart to third.3–1
- 6N. Gonzales doubled to center, Horwitz scored.2–1
- 3Davis homered to left center (425 feet).1–1
- 2Ozuna singled to right, Baldwin scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML PIT +145 / ATL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +39 Elo | ATL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–53 | Road vs home | 38–4124th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301478 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–74 | 78–82 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 41–60 |
| Underdog | 67–43 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 66–94 | 78–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–8 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.