Kansas City Royals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kurtz homered to left center (423 feet), Thomas scored.9–2
- 8Yastrzemski homered to right center (409 feet).9–0
- 7Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored and Massey scored.8–0
- 7Jensen homered to right center (456 feet).6–0
- 7Yastrzemski homered to right center (389 feet).5–0
- 5Massey singled to left, Jensen scored, Frazier to third.4–0
- 4Garcia singled to right, Massey scored.3–0
- 4Massey singled to right, Frazier scored on fielding error by right fielder Bleday, Massey to third.2–0
- 2Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Jensen scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML KC -155 / ATH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- KC: Elo 47.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +16 Elo | ATH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 36–4427th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–82 | 90–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–44 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 52–38 | 71–47 |
| Overs–unders | 71–90 | 81–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–10 ATH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.
