Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Angels- Bryce TeodosioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell scored on a passed ball by Perez.8–4
- 9Adell scored on a passed ball by Perez.8–4
- 9Ward homered to center (398 feet).8–3
- 8Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored and Rave scored.8–2
- 8Garcia singled to left, Jensen scored, Rave to second.6–2
- 7Frazier doubled to right, Grichuk scored and Yastrzemski scored, Frazier thrown out at third.5–2
- 5Teodosio homered to left (394 feet), Moore scored.3–2
- 5Pasquantino doubled to left, Garcia scored.3–0
- 1Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Garcia scored on Aldegheri wild pitch, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Aldegheri.1–0
- 1Garcia scored on Aldegheri wild pitch, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Aldegheri.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 60%
- ML KC -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- KC: Elo 54.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +29 Elo | KC 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 37–3823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 144127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–81 | 78–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–43 | 13–32 |
| Underdog | 50–38 | 65–46 |
| Overs–unders | 69–87 | 86–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–8 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.