Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soderstrom homered to right center (395 feet).0–6
- 7Langeliers homered to left (398 feet).0–5
- 5Rooker singled to left, Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.0–4
- 5Langeliers hit a ground rule double, B. Harris scored, Kurtz to third.0–2
- 3Soderstrom doubled to left, Kurtz scored, Langeliers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -135 / ATH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −7 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 34–4227th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–80 | 88–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–61 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 43–19 | 69–47 |
| Overs–unders | 74–83 | 80–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 22–15 ATH in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 37.