Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4
- Cristian JavierPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cortes hit sacrifice fly to center, Wilson scored, Butler to third.1–5
- 5Wilson singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Rooker to third.1–4
- 5Soderstrom doubled to center, B. Harris scored.1–3
- 4Hernaiz reached on infield single to shortstop, Wilson scored.1–2
- 2Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.1–1
- 1Kurtz scored on error, Rooker safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Javier.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML HOU -105 / ATH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +3 Elo | ATH 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 33–4227th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 147924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–79 | 87–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–61 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 43–18 | 69–47 |
| Overs–unders | 74–82 | 80–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 22–14 ATH in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 36.