Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch FarrisPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yastrzemski singled to right, Perez scored.9–4
- 9Perez doubled to center, Pasquantino scored, Tolbert scored and Witt Jr. scored.8–4
- 8Trout homered to center (406 feet), Rengifo scored.5–4
- 8Frazier reached on infield single to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Yastrzemski to second, Perez to third.5–2
- 6Schanuel homered to right center (404 feet).4–2
- 5Witt Jr. doubled to left, Massey scored.4–1
- 3Pasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to second, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. out at second.3–1
- 2Adell homered to center (404 feet).2–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (391 feet), Garcia scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / LAA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- KC: Elo 54.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Mitch Farris: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +32 Elo | KC 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 17th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 38–3922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 144027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–81 | 78–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 13–33 |
| Underdog | 51–38 | 65–47 |
| Overs–unders | 70–88 | 87–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 9–9 LAA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.