Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Randal GrichukBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jensen singled to right, Yastrzemski scored.2–3
- 5Grichuk homered to center (400 feet).1–3
- 4Rivero grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Peraza scored on error.0–3
- 3Ward homered to left center (420 feet).0–2
- 2Peraza grounded out to shortstop, Rengifo scored, Moore to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- KC: Elo 59.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +64 Elo | KC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 37–3923rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 143927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–81 | 78–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–43 | 13–32 |
| Underdog | 50–38 | 65–47 |
| Overs–unders | 70–87 | 87–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 9–8 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.