Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schuemann grounded out to third, Bleday scored.11–5
- 9Bleday doubled to center, Langeliers scored.11–4
- 8Kurtz homered to left center (389 feet), Thomas scored.11–3
- 8Walker homered to left (366 feet).11–1
- 7Correa hit a ground rule double, Dubón scored, Urías to third.10–1
- 6Kurtz homered to left center (393 feet).9–1
- 5Altuve reached on infield single to second, Dubón scored.9–0
- 5Dubón doubled to left, Trammell scored, Dubón to third.8–0
- 4Walker singled to right, Altuve scored, Caratini to second, Paredes to third.7–0
- 4Paredes singled to left, Trammell scored, Altuve to third.6–0
- 2Correa grounded out to third, Altuve scored, Paredes to second.5–0
- 2Paredes singled to left, Dubón scored, Altuve to third.4–0
- 2Altuve doubled to left, Cole scored, Dubón to third.3–0
- 1Walker grounded into fielder's choice to third, Correa scored, Caratini out at second.2–0
- 1Caratini singled to right, Paredes scored, Correa to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / ATH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +11 Elo | ATH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–39 | Road vs home | 35–4227th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–81 | 89–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–62 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 43–19 | 70–47 |
| Overs–unders | 74–84 | 80–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 22–16 ATH in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.