Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to right center (386 feet), White scored, Albies scored and Harris II scored.2–6
- 9Harris II reached on infield single to pitcher, Mateo scored, Albies to second, White to third.2–2
- 9Yastrzemski singled to center, Baldwin scored, Mateo to third.2–1
- 8Pasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Garcia scored on fielding error by first baseman Olson.2–0
- 7Perez homered to left center (390 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML KC +123 / ATL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- KC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +24 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 39–4222nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 150812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  KC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–82 | 79–83 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–44 | 42–61 |
| Underdog | 52–38 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 72–90 | 78–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–7 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.