Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell homered to left (383 feet), Wallner scored and Jeffers scored.9–13
- 8Martin hit by pitch, Bell scored, Gray to second, Caratini to third.6–13
- 8Caratini singled to center, Jeffers scored, Bell to second.5–13
- 7Isbel homered to right (360 feet).4–13
- 7Keaschall doubled to left, Lewis scored and Lee scored, Martin to third.4–12
- 7Martin walked, Bell scored, Lee to second, Lewis to third.2–12
- 6India homered to left (397 feet), Garcia scored, Pasquantino scored and Perez scored.1–12
- 6Pasquantino grounded into fielder's choice to first, Isbel scored on error, Garcia safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Caratini.1–8
- 6Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Collins scored, Isbel to third.1–7
- 6Garcia walked, Caglianone scored, Isbel to second, Collins to third.1–6
- 5Lee singled to center, Lewis scored.1–5
- 4Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Caglianone scored, Collins to third.0–5
- 3India reached on infield single to third, Pasquantino scored, India out stretching at second.0–4
- 2Garcia singled to left, Isbel scored.0–3
- 2Isbel singled to left, Collins scored.0–2
- 2Collins doubled to right, Caglianone scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -113 / KC -107
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 41.9%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +57 Elo | KC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 2.330th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 17 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 26th of 301471 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–84 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 28–44 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 72–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 22–18 KC in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 40.