Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Collins homered to left (400 feet).1–3
- 2Isbel homered to right (403 feet), India scored.1–2
- 2Wallner homered to right center (424 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 60%
- ML MIN +139 / KC -168
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- KC: Elo 55.9%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -150
- MIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 5.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +6 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +41 Elo | KC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 2.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.327th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150813th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–84 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 28–44 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders | 77–85 | 72–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 22–17 KC in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.