Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers homered to right center (376 feet).2–6
- 6Lockridge doubled to right, Bauers scored.2–5
- 6Sánchez homered to center (414 feet).2–4
- 5Turang singled to right, Lockridge scored on error, Sánchez scored and Ortiz scored on error, Turang safe at second on error by center fielder Mullins.2–3
- 5Fortes homered to left center (408 feet).2–0
- 1Aranda homered to left center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML TB +104 / MIL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +11 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +68 Elo | MIL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.5 | Runs scored | 7.81st of 30 |
| 27th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 3.35th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +4.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 17 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 145927th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–81 | 94–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 52–31 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 83–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–4 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.