Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hamilton singled to center, Mitchell scored.2–8
- 8Perkins grounded out to first, Bauers scored, Mitchell to third.2–7
- 8Mitchell doubled to right, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Bauers to third.2–6
- 8Yelich singled to right, Ortiz scored and Turang scored, Contreras to second.2–4
- 3Turang homered to center (392 feet), Hamilton scored.2–2
- 3Díaz homered to right (364 feet), Palacios scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML TB +113 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- TB +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −13 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +64 Elo | MIL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 7.41st of 30 |
| 28th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 3.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +4.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 17 |
| 13th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 146427th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–5 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.