St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Báez singled to left, Meadows scored.0–4
- 5Greene singled to center, Torres scored, Carpenter to third.0–3
- 4Dingler homered to left center (433 feet), Greene scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML STL +153 / DET -186
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- DET: Elo 54.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -165
- STL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +34 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.016th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Elo rating | 150017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–6 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.