Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vargas homered to left center (431 feet).6–9
- 7Torkelson doubled to left, Greene scored.6–8
- 7Greene singled to center, Keith scored.5–8
- 7Keith doubled to left, Torres scored and Báez scored.4–8
- 7Báez singled to right, Dingler scored.2–8
- 7Dingler doubled to center, McGonigle scored.1–8
- 5Marte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Thomas scored, Lawlar to second, Santana to third.0–8
- 5Lawlar walked, Arenado scored, Santana to second, Thomas to third.0–7
- 5Thomas doubled to left, Moreno scored, Arenado to third.0–6
- 2Carroll homered to right center (403 feet), Vargas and Lawlar scored.0–5
- 1Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carroll scored, Perdomo out at second.0–2
- 1Carroll tripled to right, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML DET +104 / ARI -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −25 | DET: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +13 Elo | DET 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 2.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 15551st of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DET |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–92 | 83–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 50–68 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 28–24 | 50–28 |
| Overs–unders | 91–79 | 84–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–4 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.