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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Mariners

90-72

3–9

at

Home

Tigers

87-75

SEA 50%DET 50%

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Comerica Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%SEAStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mariners
  • Josh NaylorBatting3-4
  • Bryce MillerPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Tigers
  • Javier BaezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Casey MizePitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Báez grounded into fielder's choice to third, McKinstry scored, Dingler out at second.3–9
  • 7Torres homered to right (344 feet).3–8
  • 6Báez homered to left (385 feet), Pérez scored.3–7
  • 6McKinstry singled to right, Torkelson scored.3–5
  • 6Greene homered to right center (454 feet).3–4
  • 5Báez singled to left, Jones scored.3–3
  • 5Jones doubled to left, Dingler scored.3–2
  • 5Dingler doubled to left, McKinstry scored.3–1
  • 5Raleigh singled to right, Arozarena scored.3–0
  • 4Robles grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Naylor scored, Garver out at second, Suárez to third.2–0
  • 2Canzone singled to right, Naylor scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Tigers 50%

Toss-upHit
SEA 50%DET 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
DET 50%
ML SEA -110 / DET -110
Pre-line forecast
DET 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET 47%
Ratings vs. market
−3.2 pts
DET: Elo 46.8%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
DET -100
SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SEA 4.3 – 4.3 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSEADETWhy
Team rating15361499Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−5−9SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSEA +22 EloSEA 53.2%
Market-implied ratingsDET 50.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSEA 50.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
SEAStatDET
9th of 304.7Runs scored4.711th of 30
17th of 304.3Runs allowed4.316th of 30
10th of 30+0.4Margin+0.411th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 102–828th of 30
13th of 3039–41Road vs home46–3512th of 30
24th of 301496Opponent Elo149625th of 30
6th of 301536Elo rating149919th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MarinersTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSEADET
Run line72–9377–91
Last 105–56–4
Favorite37–6949–67
Underdog35–2428–24
Overs–unders91–7490–78
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SEA 10–11 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 21.