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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

FinalDET wins series 2-1

Away

Tigers

87-75

6–3

at

Home

Guardians

88-74

DET 45%CLE 55%

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Progressive Field · ABC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%DETStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Tigers
  • Dillon DinglerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians
  • Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
  • Joey CantilloPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Rocchio scored on error and Kwan scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on error by pitcher Vest, Ramírez out at second on runner's fielder's choice.6–3
  • 7Greene singled to right, Pérez scored, Torkelson to second.6–1
  • 7Torkelson singled to left, Carpenter scored, Pérez to third.5–1
  • 7Pérez singled to right, Báez scored and Meadows scored, Carpenter to third.4–1
  • 6Dingler homered to center (401 feet).2–1
  • 4Ramírez singled to right, Valera scored.1–1
  • 3Carpenter doubled to second, Meadows scored, Torres to third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Guardians 55%

LeanMiss
DET 45%CLE 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
CLE 55%
ML DET +115 / CLE -135
Pre-line forecast
CLE 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE 55%
Ratings vs. market
0.0 pts
CLE: Elo 55.3%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
CLE -124
DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DET 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETCLEWhy
Team rating14991516Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−11−10DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCLE +37 EloCLE 55.3%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 53.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 53.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatCLE
11th of 304.7Runs scored4.028th of 30
16th of 304.3Runs allowed4.07th of 30
11th of 30+0.4Margin0.019th of 30
28th of 302–8Last 107–33rd of 30
5th of 3041–40Road vs home45–3615th of 30
25th of 301496Opponent Elo149529th of 30
19th of 301499Elo rating151610th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TigersGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETCLE
Run line75–8985–79
Last 104–65–5
Favorite49–6629–48
Underdog26–2356–31
Overs–unders88–7674–90
Overs–unders, last 103–74–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 23–23 CLE in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.