Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Johnathan RodriguezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kayfus hit by pitch, Halpin scored, Arias to second, Manzardo to third.2–3
- 4A. García homered to left center (433 feet).2–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to right center (397 feet), Ramírez scored.1–2
- 1Jung doubled to left, Helman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML TEX +130 / CLE -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- TEX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 2.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–46 | Road vs home | 43–3615th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–79 | 83–77 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 28–46 |
| Underdog | 45–30 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 71–89 | 72–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–7 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.