Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting0-2, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Guardians- George ValeraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez doubled to right, Schneemann scored and Halpin scored, Rocchio to third.1–5
- 5Kwan singled to left, Rocchio scored.1–3
- 3Valera homered to center (393 feet), Rocchio scored.1–2
- 3Meadows hit sacrifice fly to right, Dingler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML DET +125 / CLE -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +46 Elo | CLE 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 42–3415th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–86 | 82–75 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 49–65 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 22–21 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 87–70 | 71–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 21–21 CLE in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.