Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schneemann singled to left, Hedges scored and Kwan scored.2–5
- 6Arias grounded out to first, Ramírez scored.2–3
- 6Martínez scored on Skubal wild pitch, Ramírez to second on wild pitch by Skubal.2–2
- 6Martínez scored on Skubal wild pitch, Ramírez to second on wild pitch by Skubal.2–2
- 6Ramírez reached on infield single to third, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.2–1
- 6Greene homered to right (367 feet).2–0
- 3Pérez doubled to right, McKinstry scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / CLE +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- DET: Elo 46.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 2.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3039–36 | Road vs home | 41–3415th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–85 | 81–75 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 49–64 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 22–21 | 54–31 |
| Overs–unders | 86–70 | 70–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 21–20 CLE in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 41.