Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alejandro OsunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arias singled to center, Ramírez scored.7–3
- 7Burger singled to center, Pederson scored, Freeman to third.7–2
- 7Freeman singled to right, Helman scored and McKinney scored, Pederson to second.6–2
- 1Manzardo homered to center (417 feet), Valera scored.4–2
- 1Osuna homered to right center (406 feet), Freeman scored and Tellez scored.4–0
- 1Tellez doubled to center, Pederson scored, Freeman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML TEX +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- TEX +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–46 | Road vs home | 43–3515th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 151611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–79 | 83–76 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 28–45 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–89 | 71–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–7 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.