Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7McKinstry hit sacrifice bunt to first, Greene scored, Pérez to second.2–1
- 4Arias reached on infield single to pitcher, Martínez scored, Ramírez to third.1–1
- 1Torkelson singled to left, Carpenter scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML DET -165 / CLE +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- DET: Elo 45.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 2.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 45–3615th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–87 | 83–79 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 49–65 | 28–48 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 87–75 | 73–89 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–22 CLE in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 44.