Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rocchio homered to right (380 feet), Naylor scored and Halpin scored.8–9
- 10Naylor doubled to center, Valera scored.8–6
- 10Tellez homered to right (362 feet), Jung scored and A. García scored.8–5
- 8Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to right, Naylor scored.5–5
- 7Noel homered to center (394 feet).5–4
- 6Helman hit sacrifice bunt, McKinney scored.5–3
- 3Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.4–3
- 3Burger singled to right, Freeman scored and Jung scored.4–2
- 2Osuna doubled to right, Moore scored and Heim scored.2–2
- 1Rodríguez singled to right, Kwan scored and Martínez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML TEX +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- TEX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–47 | Road vs home | 44–3615th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 12th of 301512 | Elo rating | 151411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–79 | 83–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–49 | 28–47 |
| Underdog | 46–30 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 71–90 | 72–89 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–8 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.