Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jahmai JonesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Jones singled to left, Báez scored and Dingler scored, Jones to second, Meadows to third.2–1
- 2Sogard singled to center, Rafaela scored, Narváez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML DET +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | 0 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 47–3210th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 20th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–87 | 83–77 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 49–65 | 40–55 |
| Underdog | 24–22 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 87–73 | 78–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–9 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.