Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose De LeonPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Duran doubled to center, Sogard scored.3–4
- 4Hamilton homered to right center (381 feet), Wong scored.3–3
- 4Báez homered to left center (379 feet), Malloy scored and Pérez scored.3–1
- 1Yoshida homered to right (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML DET -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- DET: Elo 42.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jose De Leon: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +54 Elo | BOS 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 47–3311th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–87 | 83–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 49–65 | 40–56 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 87–74 | 78–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–9 BOS in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.