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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 1-1

Away

Tigers

87-75

1–6

at

Home

Guardians

88-74

DET 45%CLE 55%

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Progressive Field · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%DETStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Tigers
  • Javier BaezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
  • Casey MizePitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Guardians
  • Bo NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Naylor homered to right (360 feet), Schneemann scored and Ramírez scored.1–6
  • 8Schneemann doubled to right, Kwan scored.1–3
  • 8Rocchio homered to right (376 feet).1–2
  • 4Báez singled to center, Greene scored, Dingler to third, McKinstry thrown out at third.1–1
  • 1Valera homered to center (424 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Guardians 55%

LeanHit
DET 45%CLE 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
CLE 55%
ML DET +115 / CLE -135
Pre-line forecast
CLE 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE 56%
Ratings vs. market
+0.9 pts
CLE: Elo 56.1%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
CLE -124
DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DET 3.0 – 3.5 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETCLEWhy
Team rating15011514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−7+5DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCLE +43 EloCLE 56.1%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 51.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 51.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatCLE
11th of 304.7Runs scored4.028th of 30
16th of 304.3Runs allowed4.07th of 30
11th of 30+0.4Margin0.019th of 30
28th of 302–8Last 107–33rd of 30
5th of 3041–40Road vs home45–3615th of 30
26th of 301495Opponent Elo149528th of 30
19th of 301501Elo rating151410th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TigersGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETCLE
Run line75–8884–79
Last 104–65–5
Favorite49–6628–48
Underdog26–2256–31
Overs–unders87–7673–90
Overs–unders, last 103–73–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 23–22 CLE in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.