Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11McKinstry singled to center, Torkelson scored.3–2
- 6Rodríguez singled to right, Arozarena scored, Raleigh to second.2–2
- 5Carpenter homered to right center (409 feet), Meadows scored.2–1
- 4Rodríguez homered to center (413 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML DET +160 / SEA -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -170
- DET +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +8 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 51–307th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 19th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–89 | 70–92 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 49–66 | 36–68 |
| Underdog | 27–23 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 89–76 | 90–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–8 SEA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 18.